Venezuela-US: Conflict Scenarios and Energy Sector Impacts

Questions are swirling about US President Donald Trump’s objectives in Venezuela as the US ramps up strikes on alleged drug smugglers and builds up its military presence. Energy Intelligence sees four possible scenarios in our latest country outlook report. In our most benign one, Trump keeps tensions at a Low Boil, refraining from delivering a knockout blow to Venezuela’s energy sector and President Nicolas Maduro’s hold on power. Yet if the Temperature Rises, energy sector impacts would be larger – either due to tougher sanctions enforcement or more direct conflict. If Maduro were ousted, the possibilities would expand. A Messy Transition presents dire energy sector risks, but a Stable Regime Change could trigger an oil sector revival. This detailed, but concise, report outlines political scenarios, with implications for production, exports, diluent imports and regional risks.