Low-Carbon Energy
Technology Monitor: SAF to Take Off
Energy Intelligence’s latest modelling predicts that sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) demand will grow to about 1.25 million b/d by 2050, from around 50,000 b/d in 2025. We expect SAF consumption to grow based on consumption mandates, growing feedstock availability and economies of scale in production. New SAF demand will progressively displace jet fuel kerosene demand, and is likely to be strongest in Europe and Asia. The Mideast Gulf War could provide a boost to the SAF outlook, but we are watching key variables. The full report looks at key SAF production pathways, value chain drivers, regional forecasts, upside/downside risks to our model and oil/gas industry investment strategies.
competitive intelligence research
BP Strategic Outlook: Meg O'Neill's Key Challenges
BP enters 2026 at an inflection point — a company with world-class capabilities and a storied legacy, yet still struggling to find strategic equilibrium. The arrival of Meg O’Neill as CEO will begin to answer questions about how BP will define this next phase of its 117-year history. For more than 75 years, Energy Intelligence has tracked BP’s evolution with unmatched continuity, building decades of reporting, analysis and insider insight across the global energy system. This report draws on that foundation, shaped by voices from across the industry, to lay out the challenges ahead for BP. In this special report, Energy Intelligence sees the core focus areas as better defining BP’s corporate culture, executing a consistent strategic focus, managing investor expectations and improving the balance sheet.
Key contents of the report:
- Defining BP’s Corporate Culture
- Return to Upstream as Core Growth Competency
- Managing Investor Expectations
- Fixing a Broken Balance Sheet
- What’s Next: Near-Term Priorities and Signposts
Gas and LNG
Critical Trends: Corporate Strategy Edition
The Mideast Gulf war and LNG market disruption inspired a focus on corporate gas and LNG strategy. Once again, players are encountering a windfall, strategic questions about spending it and renewed scrutiny on priorities. Our latest analysis benchmarks evolving strategies, upstream positioning and relative risk exposure among notable pre-FID LNG ventures for top gas and LNG players.
Key contents include:
- Positioning changes for top players among key gas and LNG strategies
- Shifting company upstream exposure among six critical development hotspots
- Comparative risk exposure for partners in notable pre-FID LNG ventures using our proprietary Project Development Risk Framework
Low-Carbon Energy
Mideast Gulf War: Transition Gets Lift, Takes New Form
The precise impact of the Mideast Gulf War on the energy transition is dependent on several variables, but five key shifts reshaping the trajectory are evident. In this special report, Energy Intelligence highlights pivotal trends that are emerging or consolidating because of the conflict:
- Changes in the energy narrative
- The empowerment of consumer action
- A boost to electrification rates
- The central role of emerging markets
- The changing shape of multilateral action around the transition
oil markets research
Mideast Gulf War: Oil Demand Response Leads to Modest 2026 Growth
The Strait of Hormuz closure is the largest supply disruption in the history of global oil markets. For now, this episode is overwhelmingly a supply shock, with physical rationing occurring in Asia and Australia, and Europe right behind. As part of Energy Intelligence demand revisions, our Base Case scenario (45% probability) results in demand growth of around 60,000 b/d this year, against a pre-war 2026 baseline of just above 900,000. A Deeper Case sees a nearly 100,000 b/d contraction (25% probability) requiring confirmed cracker shutdowns, extended Chinese export curbs and a European recession. Diesel freight volumes, Asian steam crackers and China’s export policy decision at the end of April will be the earliest signposts for our trajectory.
Key contents of the report:
• Global demand revisions and scenarios
• Demand impacts by product
• Country pinch points – Asia and Europe in focus
• What to watch next – our monitoring framework