Risk Research
Energy Economics Monitor: February 2026 Update
Energy Intelligence’s Energy Economics Monitor analyzes the key macroeconomic factors impacting energy market movement and sector investments. Our latest outlook suggests global growth has cooled as weakness in manufacturing outweighs resilience in services. Trade uncertainty has resurfaced, with renewed US-Europe frictions and a shift to new bilateral deals. This points to continued divergence, with North America and some emerging markets showing firmer momentum, while Europe and manufacturing-heavy economies remain the main laggards into early 2026.
risk research
Iran: Political and Energy Outlook Amid Intensifying Regional Risks
Despite Iranian protests appearing to lose steam, the threat of domestic unrest and foreign intervention remains. In a worst case, a potential US-Iran conflict could spillover and threaten vital regional energy exports. In this special report, Energy Intelligence lays out three likely pathways, with a base case scenario, Suppression and Defiance, where Tehran holds power with limited concessions but does not quell the economic unease, leaving the door open to future volatility. For the energy sector, renewed disorder and US military intervention present major downside supply risks, with Energy Intelligence providing production forecasts based on the political scenarios and implications for global energy flows.
Competitive Intelligence Research
Venezuela: Competitive Landscape and Investment Risk Outlook
While the political environment in Venezuela remains in flux, the US is advancing its energy agenda. US firms have cautiously signaled investment interest, but Energy Intelligence sees this as likely contingent on political stability, physical security, sanctions removal and attractive fiscal terms. At the same time, Washington’s plan to restore the Venezuelan oil sector will need to include PDVSA, which relies on a network of partners. A review of this cobbled competitive landscape may be on the table. We expect Caracas to advance short-term energy policy changes, but long-term investment clarity will be needed.
Key contents of the report:
• Energy Intelligence political scenarios and production forecasts
• PDVSA strategic overview
• Country Risk Index score and aboveground risk overview
• Fiscal terms and operating conditions
• Sanction overview and outlook
• Debt and arbitration claims
• Energy sector rehabilitation requirements
• Key upstream projects and joint venture agreements
• Competitive landscape
Special Report
Ten Things the Energy Industry Needs to Watch in 2026
The past 12 months have witnessed unprecedented geopolitical disruptions via trade tensions and "hot" conflicts, continued bifurcation in oil trade — and in the pace of the energy transition — and renewed industry enthusiasm for the long-term prospects for oil and gas. As 2026 draws near, here are 10 of the biggest questions Energy Intelligence will be tracking in the new year.
Risk Research
Iraq: Election to Make or Break Upstream Progress
Initial Iraqi election results point towards a stronger than anticipated result for incumbent Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s Reconstruction and Development Party. However, al-Sudani is far from guaranteed another term in office. As part of this in-depth report, Energy Intelligence sees the positive momentum currently enjoyed by the upstream sector facing key uncertainties. More attractive fiscal terms and political stability will enhance Iraq’s investment appeal, but long-delayed upgrades to midstream infrastructure will be critical to a wider revitalization. TotalEnergies and BP deals have included both gas capture and power projects, supporting Iraq’s rapidly growing demand.
Key contents of the report:
• Crude output dynamics
• Key investment risks
• Fiscal term improvements
• Recent deals with Western majors
• Midstream and other infrastructure developments
• Domestic demand outlook
• List of major producing fields, capacity, operator and partners