oil markets research
Mideast Gulf War: Oil Demand Response Leads to Modest 2026 Growth
The Strait of Hormuz closure is the largest supply disruption in the history of global oil markets. For now, this episode is overwhelmingly a supply shock, with physical rationing occurring in Asia and Australia, and Europe right behind. As part of Energy Intelligence demand revisions, our Base Case scenario (45% probability) results in demand growth of around 60,000 b/d this year, against a pre-war 2026 baseline of just above 900,000. A Deeper Case sees a nearly 100,000 b/d contraction (25% probability) requiring confirmed cracker shutdowns, extended Chinese export curbs and a European recession. Diesel freight volumes, Asian steam crackers and China’s export policy decision at the end of April will be the earliest signposts for our trajectory.
Key contents of the report:
• Global demand revisions and scenarios
• Demand impacts by product
• Country pinch points – Asia and Europe in focus
• What to watch next – our monitoring framework
competitive intelligence research
BP Strategic Outlook
BP enters 2026 at an inflection point — a company with world-class capabilities and a storied legacy, yet still struggling to find strategic equilibrium. The arrival of Meg O’Neill as CEO will begin to answer questions about how BP will define this next phase of its 117-year history. For more than 75 years, Energy Intelligence has tracked BP’s evolution with unmatched continuity, building decades of reporting, analysis and insider insight across the global energy system. This report draws on that foundation, shaped by voices from across the industry, to lay out the challenges ahead for BP. In this special report, Energy Intelligence sees the core focus areas as better defining BP’s corporate culture, executing a consistent strategic focus, managing investor expectations and improving the balance sheet.
risk research
Mideast Gulf War: Tenuous Ceasefire Outlook and Energy Sector Impact
The two-week ceasefire in the Mideast Gulf War and upcoming talks in Pakistan provide the first concrete hope of a diplomatic off-ramp to the conflict. The ceasefire is tenuous and the parties must overcome large hurdles to reach a deal. As part of updated Energy Intelligence scenarios, there remains a strong chance that hostilities resume or talks drag on, potentially leading to a frozen conflict. For oil markets, major tightness in the physical markets will persist for months, while for LNG, prices also dropped but are likely to stay elevated into 2027 as European re-injection season begins.
gas and lng research
Critical Trends: Mideast Gulf War Edition
In our latest Critical Trends reports, Energy Intelligence updates the expectations for gas and LNG prices that have evolved since early March in line with Mideast Gulf developments, with an eye on pricing dynamics akin to those encountered during the 2022 Russia crisis. In considering implications for long-term LNG demand, we also revisit the assumptions that have underpinned our outlook. On the supply side, we employ our proprietary project risk development framework to evaluate headwinds for advancing LNG ventures – even as current upheaval provides tailwinds. Finally, we have included our latest outlook for liquefaction capacity expected to reach FID this year.
Special Report
AI Initiative Tracker: March 2026 Update
Energy Intelligence’s proprietary AI Initiative Tracker captures activity of 50 major oil and gas companies since 2023. This update highlights developments since our initial October 2025 report. The upward trend of energy companies announcing AI initiatives continues, with firms interacting with AI in four main ways: integrating AI into their businesses; supplying energy for AI; investing in AI companies; and partnering with AI companies to offer services to other energy players. Three main regional centers of AI use are emerging – North America, Europe and the Mideast Gulf – while NOCs as a peer group are embracing AI the fastest.