Special Report
AI Initiative Tracker: March 2026 Update
Energy Intelligence’s proprietary AI Initiative Tracker captures activity of 50 major oil and gas companies since 2023. This update highlights developments since our initial October 2025 report. The upward trend of energy companies announcing AI initiatives continues, with firms interacting with AI in four main ways: integrating AI into their businesses; supplying energy for AI; investing in AI companies; and partnering with AI companies to offer services to other energy players. Three main regional centers of AI use are emerging – North America, Europe and the Mideast Gulf – while NOCs as a peer group are embracing AI the fastest.
gas and lng research
LNG Market Evolution Quarterly, Q1’26
The conflict in the Middle East has upended the short-term outlook for both spot and term LNG prices. The duration of LNG disruption from Qatar (and the United Arab Emirates) will be key to the magnitude of market upheaval, with other elements set to support volatility even after resolution. Long-term LNG market implications were evident after the last market crisis in 2022 and may now become more urgent. In the US, December and January gas market chaos revived questions about medium-term equilibrium and LNG vulnerability given potential for a growing supply-demand imbalance. Our latest LNG Market Evolution Quarterly examines these various market dynamics as well as provides our latest price forecast.
risk research
US-Iran War: As Conflict Expands, Energy Sector Impacts Grow
Ongoing US and Israeli attacks on Iran have taken an unprecedented toll on Iran’s senior leadership but have not deterred Iranian action against regional energy assets. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed to a near-halt, with Iran increasingly targeting vital oil and gas infrastructure. As part of our conflict scenario analysis, Energy Intelligence now sees the supply impact as being more closely in line with our Sustained Regional Conflict scenario. For oil markets, we continue to see crude with a potential upside to $100+/bbl as supply disruptions appear much more likely.
Low-Carbon Energy Research
Levelized Cost of Energy: Renewables Declines Will Continue at Slower Rate
- Elevated trade and geopolitical tensions are making projected cost declines of capex-intensive renewable technologies slower than we had previously expected. As part of Energy Intelligence’s proprietary modeling, we have revised up our long-term renewables LCOE projections. Nevertheless, renewables will still be cheaper than fossil fuels and we still envisage accelerated renewable rollout over the next few decades. While LCOE continues to attract some methodology criticism, it remains a useful tool and our analysis shows that renewables generation would still be globally cost competitive even adjusting for these sensitivities.
Key contents of the report:
- LCOE Outlook
- Common Concerns of LCOE Analysis
- Implications for the Electricity Mix
- Appendix: Assumptions
risk research
US-Iran Tensions: Updated Political and Oil Supply Scenarios
The US continues to pour assets into the Mideast Gulf in what is reportedly the largest regional military buildup since the Iraq invasion in 2003. Updated Energy Intelligence scenarios sees some form of US and/or Israeli action against Iran as likely, but considerable uncertainty persists around its likely scope, Iran’s ability to withstand it or what Washington’s end goals for an operation would be. Our current base case sees a loss of approximately 350,000 b/d in Iranian exports, assuming diplomacy fails, but that any resulting fighting remains relatively contained. We see crude prices rising to over $115/bbl, in a worst-case scenario, while the oil price downside from a deal is lower, with crude settling closer to a $63/bbl if the current geopolitical premium were removed.