risk research
US-Iran War: As Conflict Expands, Energy Sector Impacts Grow
Ongoing US and Israeli attacks on Iran have taken an unprecedented toll on Iran’s senior leadership but have not deterred Iranian action against regional energy assets. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed to a near-halt, with Iran increasingly targeting vital oil and gas infrastructure. As part of our conflict scenario analysis, Energy Intelligence now sees the supply impact as being more closely in line with our Sustained Regional Conflict scenario. For oil markets, we continue to see crude with a potential upside to $100+/bbl as supply disruptions appear much more likely.
Low-Carbon Energy Research
Levelized Cost of Energy: Renewables Declines Will Continue at Slower Rate
- Elevated trade and geopolitical tensions are making projected cost declines of capex-intensive renewable technologies slower than we had previously expected. As part of Energy Intelligence’s proprietary modeling, we have revised up our long-term renewables LCOE projections. Nevertheless, renewables will still be cheaper than fossil fuels and we still envisage accelerated renewable rollout over the next few decades. While LCOE continues to attract some methodology criticism, it remains a useful tool and our analysis shows that renewables generation would still be globally cost competitive even adjusting for these sensitivities.
Key contents of the report:
- LCOE Outlook
- Common Concerns of LCOE Analysis
- Implications for the Electricity Mix
- Appendix: Assumptions
risk research
US-Iran Tensions: Updated Political and Oil Supply Scenarios
The US continues to pour assets into the Mideast Gulf in what is reportedly the largest regional military buildup since the Iraq invasion in 2003. Updated Energy Intelligence scenarios sees some form of US and/or Israeli action against Iran as likely, but considerable uncertainty persists around its likely scope, Iran’s ability to withstand it or what Washington’s end goals for an operation would be. Our current base case sees a loss of approximately 350,000 b/d in Iranian exports, assuming diplomacy fails, but that any resulting fighting remains relatively contained. We see crude prices rising to over $115/bbl, in a worst-case scenario, while the oil price downside from a deal is lower, with crude settling closer to a $63/bbl if the current geopolitical premium were removed.
Special Report
Emissions Monitor: February 2026 Update
Energy Intelligence’s latest update to the Emissions Monitor reflects a full performance benchmarking for FY2024, with data from a total of 43 oil and gas companies. As part of our proprietary analysis, we find that methane performance continues to improve markedly year-on-year across all peer groups, while operated emissions performance (Scope 1 and 2) is mixed. Upstream emissions intensity, however, continues to decline, suggesting that companies are learning to produce more hydrocarbons with a lower per-unit carbon footprint. Energy Intelligence has also added six independent E&Ps and three state firms to coverage in the Emissions Monitor: Antero Resources, Devon Energy, Coterra Energy (to be acquired by Devon), Murphy Oil, Galp Energia, Tullow Oil, YPF, KMG and OQ.
Key contents of the report:
- Operational emissions benchmarking
- Methane emissions benchmarking
- US independent E&Ps in focus
- New company emissions profile
- Appendix: GHG emissions reduction targets
Risk Research
2026 Political Risk Outlook: Elections and Gen Z Protests
After a volatile 2025, elections and protests will continue to influence political risk over the course of the year with major energy sector implications. In this special risk outlook report, Energy Intelligence outlines the four most important elections to watch for the energy sector: US mid-terms, Colombia, Brazil and Israel. We also detail other elections on our radar, with specific hydrocarbon sector, transition and geopolitical implications. The report also highlights the “Gen Z” protests, which are occurring with increasing frequency, spreading from Southeast Asia to Africa, Europe and Latin America.
Risk Research
Energy Economics Monitor: February 2026 Update
Energy Intelligence’s Energy Economics Monitor analyzes the key macroeconomic factors impacting energy market movement and sector investments. Our latest outlook suggests global growth has cooled as weakness in manufacturing outweighs resilience in services. Trade uncertainty has resurfaced, with renewed US-Europe frictions and a shift to new bilateral deals. This points to continued divergence, with North America and some emerging markets showing firmer momentum, while Europe and manufacturing-heavy economies remain the main laggards into early 2026.