Mideast Gulf War: Oil and Gas Restarts Face Uneven Path Forward

Mideast Gulf production restarts are primarily dependent on the status of the US-Iran ceasefire and an opening of the Strait of Hormuz for stabilized regional maritime traffic. Energy Intelligence sees a “Diplomatic Stalemate” as the most likely near-term outcome, pointing to a scenario in which the strait is neither fully open nor fully closed, with maritime traffic well below pre-war levels. Our recent forecasts suggest Saudi Arabia and the UAE are best positioned for a quick recovery in output, followed closely by Iraq. Kuwait and Qatar – for both liquids and LNG – will likely take longer to recover. This outlook continues to inform our view of a 2.5 million b/d supply deficit for 2026, with Brent averaging $104/bbl for Q2 and $89/bbl for 2026.