US-Iran War: As Conflict Expands, Energy Sector Impacts Grow

Ongoing US and Israeli attacks on Iran have taken an unprecedented toll on Iran’s senior leadership but have not deterred Iranian action against regional energy assets. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed to a near-halt, with Iran increasingly targeting vital oil and gas infrastructure. As part of our conflict scenario analysis, Energy Intelligence now sees the supply impact as being more closely in line with our Sustained Regional Conflict scenario. For oil markets, we continue to see crude with a potential upside to $100+/bbl as supply disruptions appear much more likely.