Mideast Gulf War: Ceasefire Under Strain as Pressure to Find a Deal Mounts

Despite recent noise and frequent claims of an imminent deal, the Mideast Gulf War remains mired in Energy Intelligence’s Diplomatic Stalemate scenario. Yet, pressure is growing, and the likelihood Hostilities Resume in earnest – as shown by recent ceasefire violations and bellicose rhetoric form the US – is rising. However, the odds an Interim Agreement is reached can also not be discounted.

For oil markets, our assessments show massive stock draws and Chinese import declines smoothed a supply cliff – originally expected in June – into a slow-motion, but still seismic, collision likely to occur around October. How these conflict scenarios unfold will determine whether the worst effects of this clash can be mitigated.