Energy Intelligence
Mideast Energy Supply: The Risks of Disruption
Mideast Energy Supply: The Risks of Disruption
Tue, Apr 16, 2024
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Rising Mideast geopolitical tensions have highlighted oil sector vulnerabilities. While markets have weathered recent Red Sea disruptions, a Strait of Hormuz closure would have much greater impact. Energy Intelligence sees such a scenario as a black swan event, but parallel disruptions would have lasting impacts on energy markets and the global economy.
In this detailed 40+-page Risk Research report, Energy Intelligence analyzes the potential oil and gas impacts of a transit disruption. Alternative transit routes, stocks and spare capacity are among key tools to help adjust to disruption. In a worst-case scenario, oil prices could climb over $150/bbl. In gas, the market disruption would be equivalent to the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Key contents of the report:
- Current Crisis in Context: Mideast geopolitics and oil price impacts; Market adjustments to Red Sea maritime threats; Historical context and possible market responses
- Potential Oil and Gas Trade Impact: Trade dependency dynamics; Alternative trade routes; Oil price scenarios; LNG market scenarios
- Producer and Consumer Vulnerability: US and European impacts; Asian economies more exposed; Gulf producer resiliency
