Macroeconomic Outlook, September 2025 Update

Energy Intelligence’s latest Macroeconomic Outlook focuses on growing risks facing the global macroeconomy for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026. The US is likely to bear the brunt of these impacts as inflation ticks up, the dollar falls and the economy – and the job market – cool. Prospects in countries with close US trade linkages will also take a hit. While the US reached deals with many Asian countries, progress on a more permanent deal with Beijing remains uncertain, while tensions with India flare. The uncertainty is weighing on commodity prices – including oil and gas – which will harm producers in the Middle East, Latin America and Africa.

Key components of the report:

• Global Outlook: Downside risks revolve around US trade policy; Main macroeconomic risks and their impact on energy demand; Central banks keep cool in face of growing uncertainty
• Advanced Economies: Trade deals ease tensions but raise recession risks in Europe and Asia; US dollar under duress
• Developing Economies: Emerging Asian markets to take hit, despite flurry of US trade deals; Global trade tensions provide risks and opportunities for Latin America; Decreased foreign aid flows to exacerbate Sub-Saharan Africa’s struggles
• Key Producer Dynamics: Lower oil prices add to downside geopolitical risks