Energy Intelligence
EV Outlook: China Races Ahead
EV Outlook: China Races Ahead
Thu, May 22, 2025
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EVs are set to continue growing rapidly through 2040, spurred by ever-cheaper batteries. China will continue to lead, followed by Europe, according to Energy Intelligence’s latest forecast report. Stellar sales in China have prompted us to revise up our sales forecast there, which should offset headwinds elsewhere.
In this 25-page report, we model three EV sales scenarios (covering five major auto markets). In our revised Core scenario, sales are projected to hit ~80% by 2040, leading to almost 46% of the LDV fleet being electrified. In all three scenarios, the total ICE vehicle fleet in these key markets is forecast to peak by 2027.
Key components of the report:
- EV Sales Outlook
- Market Impacts: Oil, Electricity, Lithium
- Trade Uncertainty
- Appendix: Methodology
