Despite Iranian protests appearing to lose steam, the threat of domestic unrest and foreign intervention remains. In a worst case, a potential US-Iran conflict could spillover and threaten vital regional energy exports. In this special report, Energy Intelligence lays out three likely pathways, with a base case scenario, Suppression and Defiance, where Tehran holds power with limited concessions but does not quell the economic unease, leaving the door open to future volatility. For the energy sector, renewed disorder and US military intervention present major downside supply risks, with Energy Intelligence providing production forecasts based on the political scenarios and implications for global energy flows.

The past 12 months have witnessed unprecedented geopolitical disruptions via trade tensions and "hot" conflicts, continued bifurcation in oil trade — and in the pace of the energy transition — and renewed industry enthusiasm for the long-term prospects for oil and gas. As 2026 draws near, here are 10 of the biggest questions Energy Intelligence will be tracking in the new year.

Questions are swirling about US President Donald Trump’s objectives in Venezuela as the US ramps up strikes on alleged drug smugglers and builds up its military presence. Energy Intelligence sees four possible scenarios in our latest country outlook report. In our most benign one, Trump keeps tensions at a Low Boil, refraining from delivering a knockout blow to Venezuela’s energy sector and President Nicolas Maduro’s hold on power. Yet if the Temperature Rises, energy sector impacts would be larger – either due to tougher sanctions enforcement or more direct conflict. If Maduro were ousted, the possibilities would expand. A Messy Transition presents dire energy sector risks, but a Stable Regime Change could trigger an oil sector revival. This detailed, but concise, report outlines political scenarios, with implications for production, exports, diluent imports and regional risks.