Risk Research
Venezuela-US: Conflict Scenarios and EnergySector Impacts
Questions are swirling about US President Donald Trump’s objectives in Venezuela as the US ramps up strikes on alleged drug smugglers and builds up its military presence. Energy Intelligence sees four possible scenarios in our latest country outlook report. In our most benign one, Trump keeps tensions at a Low Boil, refraining from delivering a knockout blow to Venezuela’s energy sector and President Nicolas Maduro’s hold on power. Yet if the Temperature Rises, energy sector impacts would be larger – either due to tougher sanctions enforcement or more direct conflict. If Maduro were ousted, the possibilities would expand. A Messy Transition presents dire energy sector risks, but a Stable Regime Change could trigger an oil sector revival. This detailed, but concise, report outlines political scenarios, with implications for production, exports, diluent imports and regional risks.
Low-Carbon Energy Research
COP30: Trump’s Shadow Looms Over Belem
COP30 takes place as multilateralism is under strain, governments are wavering on decarbonization targets and US President Donald Trump is on the offensive against climate action. As part of this special Energy Intelligence report, we see what was meant to be a COP focused on Nationally Determined Contributions ratchets has become about nature and loosely-defined “implementation.” In the circumstances, some would consider an uneventful conference to be a success: the energy transition, increasingly driven by technology rather than policy, would have survived another potential derailment by geopolitics.
Low-Carbon Energy Research
AI and Energy: Beyond the Hype
Over the past year, Energy Intelligence hosted a series of events exploring the critical relationship between AI and energy. We gathered experts from the energy and technology industries, government, finance, civil society and academia for roundtables in Washington, DC, and Singapore. We challenged these experts to go beyond the hype and look afresh at what AI will actually mean for electricity demand and supply.
In this detailed 35+-page White Paper, Energy Intelligence examines what AI will mean for electricity demand and supply. It explores whether AI is a once-in-a-generation opportunity for the energy sector or whether it presents significant challenges. It identifies emerging use cases and introduces our new AI Tracker, which captures the AI initiatives of 47 oil and gas majors. We conclude that AI will change our industry – but perhaps in ways we have not even thought of yet.
Key contents of the report:
• Key Conclusions
• Roundtable Conclusions
• AI and Electricity Demand
• AI and Electricity Supply
• AI and the Energy Industry
• Outlook
Risk Research
India: Economic and Energy Demand OutlookBright, But Clouds Remain
If economic reforms continue and investment deepens, India could supplant China as the world’s fastest-growing large economy and energy demand growth engine for the next decade. However, its more services-heavy, domestic focused economic structure will have a major impact on its future energy demand profile. It also faces hurdles – such as geopolitical tensions, energy import dependency and unfinished reforms – that could weigh on growth. In this concise report, Energy Intelligence forecasts that Indian oil demand – which is around 5.8 million b/d – will grow by about 170,000 b/d annually, topping out at 9 million b/d by 2050. If it can overcome infrastructure shortfalls, natural gas demand will also likely rise significantly.