Risk Research
Macroeconomic Outlook, September 2025 Update
Energy Intelligence’s latest Macroeconomic Outlook focuses on growing risks facing the global macroeconomy for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026. The US is likely to bear the brunt of these impacts as inflation ticks up, the dollar falls and the economy – and the job market – cool. Prospects in countries with close US trade linkages will also take a hit. While the US reached deals with many Asian countries, progress on a more permanent deal with Beijing remains uncertain, while tensions with India flare. The uncertainty is weighing on commodity prices – including oil and gas – which will harm producers in the Middle East, Latin America and Africa.
Key components of the report:
- Global Outlook: Downside risks revolve around US trade policy; Main macroeconomic risks and their impact on energy demand; Central banks keep cool in face of growing uncertainty
- Advanced Economies: Trade deals ease tensions but raise recession risks in Europe and Asia; US dollar under duress
- Developing Economies: Emerging Asian markets to take hit, despite flurry of US trade deals; Global trade tensions provide risks and opportunities for Latin America; Decreased foreign aid flows to exacerbate Sub-Saharan Africa’s struggles
- Key Producer Dynamics: Lower oil prices add to downside geopolitical risks
Risk Research
United States: Despite Deals, Negative Trade Policy Impacts Grow
US President Donald Trump is advancing his protectionist trade agenda. Tariffs for many countries without an agreement are rising beyond those proposed in April, while many deals include rates above pre-Trump levels. Washington is also putting forward new sectoral tariffs and expanding their use to advance geopolitical goals.
In this concise 12-page report, Energy Intelligence updates its proprietary trade conflict scenarios. We expect extended uncertainty as questions about the duration and scope of tariffs swirl. The impacts – including increased inflation and lower job growth – will rise over the course of the year. Many deals aim to boost US energy exports and investment, but the viability of these provisions is questionable. Other policies, like steel tariffs, will weigh on the sector.
Energy Transition Research
Geopolitics and Energy: Navigating a Changing World
The international geopolitical and economic order is changing. So, too, is the global energy system. These two trends are interdependent: Geopolitics is affecting the pace and shape of the energy transition, and the energy transition is recasting the international order.
In this special report, Energy Intelligence explores how the energy transition is changing alliances, recalibrating trading patterns and supporting the rise of new powers. We consider whether the geopolitical reordering will speed or slow the transition. And we examine the strategic divergence of China, the EU and US as they respond to these intersecting trends. Finally, we offer specific recommendations to help companies, investors and governments navigate the increasingly complex geopolitics of energy.
Key components of the report:
- Part 1: Restructuring the World Order
- Part 2: A Strategic Divergency – China, Europe and the US
- Part 3: Low-Carbon Geopolitics – Technology, Realignment and Sovereignty
- Part 4: Recommendations