{"product_id":"mideast-gulf-war-oil-demand-response-leads-to-modest-2026-growth","title":"Mideast Gulf War: Oil Demand Response Leads to Modest 2026 Growth","description":"\u003cp\u003eThe Strait of Hormuz closure is the largest supply disruption in the history of global oil markets. For now, this episode is overwhelmingly a supply shock, with physical rationing occurring in Asia and Australia, and Europe right behind. As part of Energy Intelligence demand revisions, our Base Case scenario (45% probability) results in demand growth of around 60,000 b\/d this year, against a pre-war 2026 baseline of just above 900,000. A Deeper Case sees a nearly 100,000 b\/d contraction (25% probability) requiring confirmed cracker shutdowns, extended Chinese export curbs and a European recession. Diesel freight volumes, Asian steam crackers and China’s export policy decision at the end of April will be the earliest signposts for our trajectory.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eKey contents of the report:\u003cbr\u003e•    Global demand revisions and scenarios\u003cbr\u003e•    Demand impacts by product\u003cbr\u003e•    Country pinch points – Asia and Europe in focus \u003cbr\u003e•    What to watch next – our monitoring framework \u003c\/p\u003e","brand":"Energy Intelligence","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":57836224741763,"sku":null,"price":2500.0,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0925\/4663\/0019\/files\/Oil_Markets_Research_red_tint.png?v=1746796040","url":"https:\/\/shop.energyintel.com\/products\/mideast-gulf-war-oil-demand-response-leads-to-modest-2026-growth","provider":"Energy Intelligence","version":"1.0","type":"link"}